Notes from the workshop. Lessons learned from building ML models, insights from failed experiments, and technical deep-dives into what actually works.
Aug 10, 2026
13 min read
> kairox labs
Multiplying Tempo's 1X2, Blaze's BTTS, and Storm's Over/Under 2.5 into a same-match slip collapses the predicted EV to one identical number for all 12 combinations, and spends 25% of its probability budget on outcomes that cannot happen. Why cross-model slips can't be built by multiplying model outputs.
Jun 23, 2026
14 min read
> kairox labs
KairoX Storm evaluated across La Liga, Premier League, and Bundesliga. Bundesliga produced the best AUC and the only consistently negative ROI. A cross-league investigation into market efficiency, MC-Gamma failure, and why predictive accuracy and betting edge are not the same thing.
Jun 9, 2026
12 min read
> kairox labs
Seven XGBoost runs on the same La Liga dataset land within 0.0025 log-loss of each other. Their away-betting ROI diverges by 11 percentage points. Walk-forward evidence that the metric you are optimising is not measuring what you think.