Two Thirds of a Second-Tier Title Race Is a Prior

2026-27 title and relegation odds for fourteen leagues, 20,000 simulated seasons each. In the eleven top flights the answer belongs to the model. In the three second tiers, and on every promoted side’s relegation number, one assumption it never made takes Southampton from 21.8% to 40.3% or to 3.2%.

The Bilateral ROI Hypothesis: Right Structure, Wrong Sample Size

The Bundesliga BTTS model finds positive NO edge in every validation fold. The bootstrap CI is 77 percentage points wide. What an underpowered result tells you about a model, and what it does not.

The Model Senses Draws. Then Buries Them.

KairoX Tempo assigns P(draw) above 0.25 to 60% of the La Liga draws it misses. An investigation into systematic underpricing, venue-specific xG signatures, and whether the decision boundary is the problem.