Bringing fire from the gods
Four specialized models. One unified prophecy for the beautiful game.
Prometheus isn't a single model, it's an ensemble of four specialized predictors, each named after Greek deities and each mastering a different aspect of the beautiful game. Like the Titan who stole fire from Olympus to give humanity knowledge, this system extracts patterns from football data that bookmakers guard closely.
The approach is deliberately simple. After testing complex model stacking and sophisticated feature engineering, I learned that in noisy domains like football, simplicity outperforms cleverness. Each model operates independently, using clean cumulative statistics and proven algorithms rather than chained predictions that amplify errors.
Together, they achieve 60-90% of bookmaker accuracy using a fraction of their data resources. The mythology isn't just aesthetic, each god's domain matches their model's purpose, creating a coherent system where ancient wisdom meets modern machine learning.
The truth: No player database. No lineups. No injury reports. Only LaLiga matches, no European competitions, no cups. Yet the system achieves 75-80% of bookmaker performance with 30% of the data.
Four deities. Four domains. Each specialized, each independent, each essential to the whole.
The Titan of Time
XGBoost classifier with 30 engineered features, cumulative points-per-game split by venue, head-to-head history, league position, xG performance, and even referee tendencies. Simplicity learned the hard way.
Cronos, who devoured his children to control destiny, now predicts match outcomes through time. Excels at home wins (86% accuracy), acknowledging that some fates, like draws, remain harder to foresee.
The Titan of Light
Dixon-Coles Poisson model predicting goal counts with mathematical precision. Time-decay weighting ensures recent form matters most, while the tau correlation adjusts for low-score scenarios that pure Poisson misses.
Titan of celestial observation, Hyperion sees patterns in the chaos of goals, predicting totals with 61.7% accuracy on Over/Under 2.5 lines.
The Titan of Intellect
Negative Binomial regression modeling corners as overdispersed count data. Rolling averages of corners, shots, xG, and crucially referee tendencies. Because even officials have patterns.
Titan of foresight and rational inquiry, Coeus applies intellect to the overlooked, corner kicks. Temperature-scaled predictions fix overconfidence, achieving calibrated probability estimates.
The God of Prophecy
Dual Negative Binomial models, one for total shots, one for shots on target. Enhanced with opponent defensive strength, shot quality metrics, match intensity indicators, and 3-match rolling averages for stability.
God of truth and prophecy, Apollo sees not just what teams shoot, but how defenses shape those attempts. Quality over quantity, achieving 88-92% accuracy.
The Titaness of Divine Order
LightGBM classifier predicting yellow and red cards through player discipline patterns, referee strictness profiles, match intensity metrics, and historical card rates. Justice sees all transgressions.
Titaness of divine law and order, Themis enforces the rules of the game. Predicting cards with 82.9% accuracy on Over/Under 2.5 lines, she sees which matches will test referee patience.
Prometheus achieves competitive accuracy against industry bookmakers, using significantly less data and computational resources.
| Model | Prometheus | Bookmakers | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cronos (1X2) | 60.8% | 65-70% | 87-94% |
| Hyperion (Goals) | 62-68% | 63-66% | 93-108% |
| Coeus (Corners) | 72-86% | 79-90% | 91-96% |
| Apollo (Shots) | 88-92% | 91-95% | 97-98% |
| Themis (Cards)NEW | 73-96% | 75-95% | 96-103% |
Note: Bookmaker accuracy ranges are industry estimates. Hyperion, Coeus, and Apollo accuracies are based on the most common O/U (over/under) lines.
Deep technical scrolls revealing the methodology, the trials, and the wisdom gained from building these prophecy models.
The models, the mathematics, the mythology, there's more to this prophecy. Let's discuss how these gods predict the beautiful game.
Enter the Temple